World Scenarios

Two world futures scenarios have been built into Flood Ranger, World Markets and Local Stewardship; they are derived from the UK national Foresight Programme []. World scenarios form a starting point for major trends and influences that will have an impact on markets, society and the environment. The context of these scenarios comes from looking at the spectrum of development in governance between globalisation and regionalisation and social values from consumerism and community. The main characteristics of the two scenarios are shown in the table.

  World Markets Local Stewardship
Values Consumerist Conservative
Governance Globalised Regional/National
GDP 3% per year 1% per year
Fast growing sectors health care, leisure, distribution, financial services small-scale, intensive manufacturing, locally based financial and other services, small-scale agriculture
Declining sectors manufacturing, agriculture retailing, leisure, tourism
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare* -2% +1%
Environmental State - air quality
general decline mixed
Environmental State - water quality mixed general improvement
Environmental State - biodiversity under pressure improves
Environmental State - climate emissions trading weak management

* The ISEW adjusts GDP per capita income to take account of: spending to offset social and environmental costs; long-term environmental damage; the distribution of incomes; and the value of house labour.

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