Two world futures scenarios have been built into Flood Ranger, World Markets and Local Stewardship; they are derived from the UK national Foresight Programme [www.foresight.gov.uk]. World scenarios form a starting point for major trends and influences that will have an impact on markets, society and the environment. The context of these scenarios comes from looking at the spectrum of development in governance between globalisation and regionalisation and social values from consumerism and community. The main characteristics of the two scenarios are shown in the table.
|World Markets||Local Stewardship|
|GDP||3% per year||1% per year|
|Fast growing sectors||health care, leisure, distribution, financial services||small-scale, intensive manufacturing, locally based financial and other services, small-scale agriculture|
|Declining sectors||manufacturing, agriculture||retailing, leisure, tourism|
|Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare*||-2%||+1%|
|Environmental State - air quality
|Environmental State - water quality||mixed||general improvement|
|Environmental State - biodiversity||under pressure||improves|
|Environmental State - climate||emissions trading||weak management|
* The ISEW adjusts GDP per capita income to take account of: spending to offset social and environmental costs; long-term environmental damage; the distribution of incomes; and the value of house labour.
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