World Scenarios

Two world futures scenarios have been built into Flood Ranger, World Markets and Local Stewardship; they are derived from the UK national Foresight Programme [www.foresight.gov.uk]. World scenarios form a starting point for major trends and influences that will have an impact on markets, society and the environment. The context of these scenarios comes from looking at the spectrum of development in governance between globalisation and regionalisation and social values from consumerism and community. The main characteristics of the two scenarios are shown in the table.

* The ISEW adjusts GDP per capita income to take account of: spending to offset social and environmental costs; long-term environmental damage; the distribution of incomes; and the value of house labour.

• World Markets: the future is based on a prevalence of short-term consumerism together with globalisation of governance systems. Social values are materialistic; there are high levels of consumption and mobility and gradually the state becomes hollowed out as public services become privatised. Pressure grows to reduce taxes and there is very light regulation of industry and the utility markets (energy, water, sea defences and river defences). There is minimal concern over inequity or social exclusion and social tensions rise. Families become fragmented and housing needs are increased. Political values become internationalised and economic, fiscal, trade and defence policies are transferred to the supranational level. There is strong growth in international trade, supported by an effective World Trade Organisation. Public opinion is strongly affected by success at building a strong economy.
• Local Stewardship: the future is based on a growth of community and conservationist values, where diverse political and economic systems are developed at a regional level. Social values are co-operative and self-reliant, with the environment at their heart. There is a strong emphasis on equity and social inclusion with an increased need for large family housing. The governance systems are transparent, participatory, inclusive and democratic on a local level. There is a high level of public provision of health, education and social services, but it is difficult to levy sufficient taxes for other needs such as sea defences and river defences. Regional and local cultures are revived and the family strengthened. The flow of goods and services is constrained. Decision-maker power is devolved downwards to a more federal system; industry tends to be inward looking and traditional regulation is replaced by a more diffuse structure of governance with stakeholders throughout society. Public opinion is affected by success in maintaining a successful regional economy and healthy environment.